Viewing archive of Monday, 22 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 22 2210 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. A long duration event C1.1
flare occurred at 22/0757. SXI showed the primary contributions to
the event from regions on the east and west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods
were observed at mid latitudes between 0600 to 0900 UTC, and high
latitudes between 0300 to 0900 UTC. Solar wind speed has declined
from 600 km/s to 500 km/s during this reporting period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. On 25 November, there is a
possibility of active periods due to the effects of a coronal hole
high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 106 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 009/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 004/008-004/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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