Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Two C-class events were
observed today. Both of these events were visible in the GOES-12
SXI images approaching the east solar limb. A new region was
numbered today as Region 705 (S04W64).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible with the return of Region 693
(S17,L=074), 698 (S09,L=062), and 696 (N08,L=026). These regions
are due to return to the visible disk between 23-26 November.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 25-26 November due to the influence of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 107 Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 115/120/125 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 005/008-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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