Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity continued at low levels. Isolated small
C-class events occurred, primarily from Region 687 (N12W24). Newly
numbered Region 693 (S13E72) rotated into view with a small field of
bright plage. The LASCO Coronagraph observed a near halo CME,
apparently from the backside at approximately 1200 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to mildly unsettled for the next 72 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 130 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 000/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 005/005-005/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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