Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 March 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Mar 30 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1057 (N15W22) has shown a slight decay and remains a Beta magnetic configuration. Region 1059 (S23E36) has shown little change and is a H-type spot group. The SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed a CME today off the northwest and southeast limbs. An analysis of the activity indicate the source is likely a backside event and not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for an isolated C-class event. There is a slight chance for a M-class event from Region 1057.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (31 March - 02 April).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Mar 083
  Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr  082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        30 Mar 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Mar  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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