Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 March 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Mar 20 1147 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Mar 2013	104	012
21 Mar 2013	102	029
22 Mar 2013	102	013

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity is at C-class level with a C5.5 flare as main event from NOAA AR1698, which is behind the west limb now. In the next few hours solar activity is expected to be quiet. Small C-class flares are likely with NOAA AR1692 (and AR1695) being the biggest candidate as source region. The last 12 hours the solar wind speed was between 400 and 500 km/s, now being 470 km/s. The Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled and are expected to increase within the next 24 to 48 hours to active to minor storm levels, due to the expected arrival of a halo CME of Sunday March 17 at 15h48 UT. From analysis of new data, the CME measured yesterday at 8h UT is related to the NOAA AR 1698 and will probably not arrive at Earth.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 030, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Mar 2013

Wolf number Catania	096
10cm solar flux	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	047 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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