Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 May 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 May 08 1256 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Major magstorm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 May 2016	087	044
09 May 2016	086	030
10 May 2016	084	009

Bulletin

Only one C-class flare was reported during last 24 hours. The C1.9 flare (peaked at 17:13 UT, on May 07), originated from the Catania sunspot group 72 (NOAA AR 2541) which currently has beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The prominence eruption (in the north-east quadrant of the Sun, close to the NOAA AR 2542) observed at about 15:45 UT on May 07, was associated with the EIT wave and possibly also with the Earth directed CME. More will be reported when the coronagraph data become available. We can expect only isolated low C-class flares in the next 24 hours. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed currently amounts 600 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 15 nT. The longer interval of negative value of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (down to -15 nT) and rather fast solar wind speed (about 530 km/s) caused geomagnetic storm starting from around midnight today (NOAA reported Kp=7 and local station at Dourbes reported K=5). Disturbance seemed to be a structure at the sector boundary. Since the temperature shows simultaneous increase with the solar wind speed we conclude that this is the early arrival of the fast flow associated with the equatorial coronal hole which reached central meridian in the morning of May 06. The geomagnetic storm conditions are still ongoing (NOAA reported Kp=5 and local station at Dourbes reported K=4). We expect active to moderate storm conditions in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 044, based on 28 stations.

Solar indices for 07 May 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	088
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	033 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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