Viewing archive of Monday, 5 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1843Z from Region 2836 (S26W78). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jul,
07 Jul, 08 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 05/0419Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 05/1611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/1611Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 325 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 089 Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 090/085/082 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 008/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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