Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/1915Z from Region 2835 (S18W82). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (07 Jul) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day two (08 Jul) and expected to be very low with a
chance for a C-class flares on day three (09 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 06/1951Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 06/0547Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
06/1202Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Jul, 08 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (09 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 083 Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 084/080/080 90 Day Mean 06 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 006/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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