Viewing archive of Monday, 5 July 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2021 Jul 05 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Jul 2021	091	014
06 Jul 2021	090	011
07 Jul 2021	088	005

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2838, which had produced much of the activity over the past days, has now rotated over the west limb. There are currently three ARs on the solar disk. NOAA AR 2835 was most active and produced a C-class flare peaking at 1813UT Jul 04. The newly numbered active region, NOAA 2839, has continued to develop and now has a beta magnetic configuration. NOAA AR 2837 shows signs of decay, while NOAA AR 2836 has decayed into a plage region. Solar activity is expected to be generally low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares likely and a low probability of an M-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery. An on disk signature of a possible filament eruption was observed SDO/AIA 304 around N30E30 at 2328UT Jul 04, any possible CME will be analysed when coronagraph data become available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

At the start of the period, the solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime, with the solar wind speed decreasing from values of 350 km/s to around 300 km/s. From 0024UT Jul 04, there was a small enhancement in the solar wind speed and magnetic field. The solar wind speed reached a maximum of 355 km/s and the total magnetic field increased to 7nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -2 and +7 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at similar levels over the next 24 hours. Slight enhancements in the solar wind speed are possible due to the influence a small negative polarity coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Jul 02.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-2 and local K Dourbes 0-3) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 040, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Jul 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	091
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	050 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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