Viewing archive of Monday, 28 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1650Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 360 km/s at 27/2203Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
28/1813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/1422Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 332 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 142 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 144/144/142 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 013/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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