Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
28/2359Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 409 km/s at 29/1846Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
29/0556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/0909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Aug, 31 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (01 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 142 Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 006/005-006/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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