Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
24/0328Z from Region 3445 (S14E05). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 24/2000Z. Total IMF
reached 27 nT at 24/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-27 nT at 24/2043Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 24/1500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1024 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (27
Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Sep)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (26
Sep, 27 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 174 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 172/168/164 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 011/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 023/028-009/015-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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